"Political scientists also know that when asked about controversial issues, some respondents will not give their actual opinion, but instead give the answer they deem socially acceptable."UPDATE 5/20/14: 'Gay Marriage' Not Favored in Polls, Only by Activist Judges
-- Michael J. New, Ph.D., University Of Michigan – Dearborn
For background, read Pew Research Study: Mainstream News Media Favor "Gay Marriage" by Factor of Five
In addition, read Media Admit Propaganda Overstating Gay Population
-- From "What polls really say about gay marriage" by Mark Regnerus, University of Texas at Austin, posted at Chicago Sun-Times 8/20/13
Rice sociologists Michael Emerson and Laura Essenburg analyzed data from a poll that asked a random sample of nearly 1,300 American adults — on two different occasions, in 2006 and 2012 — whether they agreed or disagreed with this statement: “The only legal marriage should be between one man and one woman.” What’s the advantage to querying the same people six years later? Rather than simply mapping trends in the overall population — which is what most polls on the subject do — you can discern internal movement within people. That is, they change their minds, and the results show that they don’t always move in the direction of greater openness to same-sex marriage.
Here is what the Rice study’s authors say they discovered: First, they found less support for same-sex marriage than polls like Gallup and CNN tend to find. In fact, in 2012, 53 percent of those surveyed agreed that the only legal marriage should be between a man and a woman, while 13 percent sat on the fence, and 33 percent disagreed with the statement. Second, they detected no statistically significant change in overall sentiment on same-sex marriage over those six years. Third, some things did change — minds — and not all of them toward favoring same-sex marriage.
The uncommon results of this study, when contrasted with most media reports on the matter, may be to blame for the silence observed about this release. It simply didn’t jibe with the dominant narrative of majority — and growing — support for same-sex marriage.
To read the entire article above, CLICK HERE.
From "What is Marriage? Americans Dividing" by Michael O. Emerson and Laura J. Essenburg, Rice University 6/24/13
Debates have swirled around the legal definition of marriage, as U.S. states and indeed national governments consider the issue. This report draws on the longitudinal Portraits of American Life Study (PALS) to examine how the adult American public defines legal marriage, and whether that definition is changing over time. Interviewing the same 1294 Americans in 2006 and 2012, we track responses to the statement, “the only legal marriage should be between one man and one woman.” The findings include that in both years, the slight majority of adult Americans agree with the statement, and there was no significant overall change between 2006 and 2012. Yet, many Americans changed their minds over the period (some changing from agreeing to disagreeing, others from disagreeing to agreeing). The patterned manner in who changed their minds resulted in more division in 2012 than in 2006 in how Americans define marriage. Specifically, divisions have grown along educational, religious, and age lines. The patterns suggest a growing cultural divide across the nation.
. . . Many groups consider the marriage issue “the civil-rights issue of our time,” and same-sex marriage “inevitable.” . . . [However,] many Americans—not a random sample—define and will continue to define marriage as between one man and one woman. Trends will not sway their opinions. Other Americans—also not a random sample—are defining marriage as something else.
. . . The news of massive public opinion change has, according to the PALS [Portraits of American Life Study] data, been exaggerated. In fact, we find that statistically, there was no change in people’s response to legal marriage being defined as one man and one woman [between 2006 and 2012].
. . . when we look behind the overall numbers, we find that many people did indeed change their minds over the 6-year period. The most stable category was among Americans who agreed in 2006 that the only legal marriage should be between one man and one woman. About three-quarters (74%) who agreed with the statement in 2006 also agreed with it in 2012. Among those who disagreed with the statement in 2006, 61% also disagreed in 2012.
What is surprising in light of other polls and the dominant media reports that Americans are moving in droves from defining marriage as one man and one woman to an expanded definition is the movement of people in the other direction as well, a fact missed by surveys that do not follow the same people over time.
To read the entire study above, CLICK HERE.
From "3 Reasons Polls May Be Overstating Support for Same-Sex Marriage" by Napp Nazworth, Christian Post Reporter 9/2/13
Polls may be showing greater support for same-sex marriage than actually exists. Due to question wording, priming (the question that comes before the same-sex marriage question), and a social desirability effect (people will not tell a pollster how they really feel if they think their response is unpopular), support for same-sex marriage could actually be lower than what many recent polls indicate, according to political scientist Michael J. New and sociologist Mark Regnerus.
In public opinion polls, question wording matters. When polling questions make reference to "rights" as they ask about support for same-sex marriage, support can be 10 percentage points higher than when a more neutral question is asked, New, assistant professor of political science at University of Michigan – Dearborn, points out for Catholic Vote.
. . . Looking at past data, Regnerus found that asking that priming question can contribute to about a six or seven percentage point increase in support shown for same-sex marriage.
To read the entire article above, CLICK HERE.
Also read Senator Ted Cruz Says the Gay Agenda Ends Christian Liberty
